Valens Market Phase Cycle Monitor & Corporate Credit Macro View for January 2020

January 23, 2020

  • After a 15% rally since October, the market may be set up to pause don’t panic. After the recent near pause less rally, sentiment indicators have grown overly bullish. This is generally a signal that near term volatility is likely to return, as investors are not focused on risks. This increases the possibility of a negative shock. However, when a dip occurs, it should be viewed as a buying opportunity based on positive corporate and credit fundamentals
  • Fundamental and management sentiment data point to accelerating earnings growth, at the same time that credit lending standards are starting to flash signs of tightening. This is a classic set up for the beginning of the late stage of a bull market, where growth takes over, driving a market higher. Signs of strong 2020 earnings growth and growing management confidence on this issue point to continued reason for fundamental acceleration
  • While credit lending standards point to early reasons for monitoring credit, there are still no signals of an impending credit crisis. Low cost to borrow, favorable credit fundamentals, and a recent wave of refinancing gives room for corporate growth. A low to no credit risk environment suggests limited risk to US equities in 2019 and into 2020