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Valens Market Phase Cycle Monitor – June 2022 – 6% Nominal GDP Growth in A Recession Makes It Not One
June 23, 2022
Having 6% Nominal GDP Growth in A Recession Makes It Not A Recession. Investors have become spooked about inflation, and the Fed creating a recession as it tries to stamp out inflation. In fact, some think we’re already in a recession. Concerns about inflation and growth have created significant near-term volatility in the stock market, presenting an opportunity for investors.
U.S. corporates are remarkably profitable, and growth is starting to accelerate. U.S. corporate growth helped power 6% nominal GDP growth last quarter, and shows no signs of slowing down, showing the real picture of where the market should be focused.
Credit levels are still not flashing warning signs of a credit freeze.
Monthly inflections:
Credit (55% of macro outlook): Neutral (no change)
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