Valens Market Phase Cycle Monitor – March 2024 – Follow Management’s Money, It Tells A Story

March 21, 2024

  • Follow Management’s Money, It Tells A Story. Management teams continue to be cautious about investing. Uniform earnings growth continues to decelerate. Profits are forecasted to decline, and multiple signals for investment show decelerating management confidence.
  • Corporate credit metrics are showing signs of growing stress. Credit availability is lacking, and corporations and individual consumers are starting to show pressure from credit tightening. Credit issues highlight the risk of a recession growing.
  • After the recent strong rally, the market is now at extended sentiment levels.
  • Monthly inflections:
    • Credit (55% of macro outlook): Negative (no change)
    • Earnings Growth (30%): Negative (no change)
    • Momentum/Sentiment (10%): Negative (downgrade)
    • Valuations (5%): Negative (no change)
  • Timetable Recommendation: 40% Equity/60% Bond Split for 5-10 Year Money and 24 Month Dollar Cost Averaging.

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