WMS – Base Case iCDS 96bps, Negative Case iCDS 136bps, 2030 6.375% Bond YTW of 5.102%, iYTW of 4.573%, Ba1 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens, Low Refinancing Need
December 11, 2025
- Credit markets are slightly overstating WMS’s credit risk with a YTW of 5.102% relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 4.573%, and an Intrinsic CDS of 96bps. Furthermore, Moody’s is overstating the firm’s fundamental credit risk, with its Ba1 credit rating three notches lower than Valens’ IG4+ (Baa1) credit rating.
- Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights positive signals for credit holders. WMS’s metrics should generally drive all three value drivers which could lead to Uniform ROA expansion and increased cash flows available for obligations going forward. Furthermore, most members of management are material owners of WMS equity relative to their annual compensation, indicating they may be aligned with shareholders to pursue long-term value creation for the company. In addition, management has low change-in-control compensation relative to their average annual compensation, indicating they may not be incentivized to pursue a takeover or accept a sale of the company, decreasing event risk for creditors.
- Earnings Call Forensics™ of the firm’s Q2 2026 earnings call (11/06/2025) highlights that management is excited their sales force will be able to cross-sell different products and confident about the resilience of their ADS business model.