Credit markets are slightly overstating credit risk with a YTW of 4.827% relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 4.305% and an Intrinsic CDS of 69bps. Furthermore, Moody’s is materially overstating XYZ’s fundamental credit risk with its speculative Ba2 credit rating seven notches below Valens’ IG3+ (A1) credit rating.

Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights mixed signals for credit holders. As a positive, although some management members are not material owners of XYZ equity relative to their annual compensation, Block Head Dorsey and Ecosystem Lead Grassadonia’s material holdings indicates they may be able to persuade other NEOs to align with shareholders to pursue long-term value creation for the company. Furthermore, most members of management have low change-in-control compensation relative to their annual compensation. This indicates they may not be incentivized to pursue or accept a takeover or sale of the company, decreasing event risk for creditors.

Earnings Call Forensics™ analysis of the firm’s Q2 2025 (08/07/2025) highlights that management generated an excitement marker when saying they can get people to participate in their U.S. pool money both through Cash App and other methods.