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The Latest from
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July 29, 2022
WDC – Traded CDS 300bps, Base Case iCDS 90bps
Negative Case iCDS 229bps, 2026 4.750% Bond YTW of 5.977%, iYTW of 3.909%
Baa3 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens
Low Refinancing Need...
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July 27, 2022
Featured Top Idea
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MTCH – Match Group, Inc.
Action: Trade: Buy 2027 5.000% Bonds CUSIP: 57665RAG1 (6.496% YTW, 4.356% iYTW)
Trade: Buy 2028 4.625% Bonds CUSIP: 57665RAN6 (6.385% YTW, 4.625% iYTW)... -
July 26, 2022
SQ – No Traded CDS, Base Case iCDS 62bps
Negative Case iCDS 113bps, 2026 2.750% Bond YTW of 5.382%, iYTW of 3.522%
Ba2 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens
Low Refinancing Need...
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July 26, 2022
UAA – Traded CDS 357bps, Base Case iCDS 131bps
Negative Case iCDS 197bps, 2026 3.250% Bond YTW of 6.812%, iYTW of 4.319%
Ba2 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa2) Rating from Valens
Low Refinancing Need...
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July 22, 2022
MTCH – Traded CDS 245bps, Base Case iCDS 128bps
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Negative Case iCDS 208bps, 2027 5.000% Bond YTW of 6.496%
iYTW of 4.356%, Ba2 Rating from Moody’s, IG3 (equivalent to A2) Rating from Valens
Low Refinancing Need... -
July 21, 2022
- Rising Cost to Borrow Isn’t Preventing Growth – Only Excessively High-Cost Will. Credit levels are at or slightly above peaks from the most recent bull market cycle. However, they haven’t reached levels that signal risk of markets closing. Healthy corporate and consumer borrowing growth and balance sheets point to no risk of a real recession in the foreseeable future.
- Concerns about inflation and growth have created significant near-term volatility in the stock market, presenting an opportunity for investors.
- U.S. corporates are remarkably profitable, and growth is starting to accelerate. U.S. corporate investment has finally been showing signs of growth. Ruddy profitability can help power that growth and the market higher as it accelerates.
- Monthly inflections:
- Credit (55% of macro outlook): Neutral (no change)
- Earnings Growth (30%): Bullish (no change)
- Momentum/Sentiment (10%): Positive (no change)
- Valuations (5%): Positive (positive change)
- Timetable Recommendation: 50/50 Split for 5-10 Year Money and 10 Month Dollar Cost Averaging....