Featured Top Idea
MTDR – Matador Resources Company
Action: Close 2026 5.875% Bonds CUSIP: 576485AE6
Close 2028 6.875% Bonds CUSIP: 576485AF3...
The Latest from
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May 30, 2023
MUR – Base Case CDS 261bps, Base Case iCDS 168bps,
Negative Case iCDS 301bps, 2028 6.375% Bond YTW of 6.600%, iYTW of 5.445%,
Ba2 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens,
Low Refinancing Need...
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May 30, 2023
SYNA – Base Case iCDS 180bps,
Negative Case iCDS 289bps, 2029 4.000% Bond YTW of 7.409%, iYTW of 5.469%,
Ba2 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens,
Low Refinancing Need...
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May 30, 2023
MTDR – Base Case iCDS 251bps,
Negative Case iCDS 339bps, 2026 5.875% Bond YTW of 6.770%, iYTW of 6.510%,
Ba3 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens,
Low Refinancing Need...
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May 26, 2023
X – Traded CDS 476bps, Base Case iCDS 201bps,
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Negative Case iCDS 511bps, 2029 6.875% Bond YTW of 7.670%, iYTW of 5.453%,
Ba3 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens,
Low Refinancing Need... -
May 25, 2023
CNC – Base Case CDS 206ps, Base Case iCDS 70bps,
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Negative Case iCDS 71bps, 2027 4.250% Bond YTW of 5.650%, iYTW of 4.290%,
Ba1 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens,
Low Refinancing Need... -
May 24, 2023
Featured Top Idea
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AMKR – Amkor Technology, Inc.
Action: Buy 2027 6.625% Bonds CUSIP: 031652BK5 (6.682% YTW, 4.772% iYTW)... -
May 23, 2023
MTCH – Base Case CDS 225bps, Base Case iCDS 191bps,
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Negative Case iCDS 259bps, 2027 5.000% Bond YTW of 6.657%, iYTW of 5.427%,
Ba2 Rating from Moody’s, IG3- (equivalent to A3) Rating from Valens,
Low Refinancing Need... -
May 23, 2023
CIEN – Base Case iCDS 114bps,
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Negative Case iCDS 171bps, 2030 4.000% Bond YTW of 6.413%, iYTW of 4.683%,
Ba1 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens,
Low Refinancing Need... -
May 18, 2023
- Credit Health Metrics Are Showing Early Signs of Borrower Stress. Credit availability is lacking, and corporates and consumers are starting to show the pressure from credit tightening. A better debt maturity schedule for borrowers than in prior cycles reduces the risk of a severe recession, but credit issues highlight the risk of a recession is growing.
- The Fed’s efforts to slow lending have pushed management teams to be more cautious. Uniform earnings growth continues to decelerate. In late 2022, data showed management teams holding off on capex, and in early 2023, management teams slowed overall borrowing as well.
- After the recent rally, investor sentiment is once again elevated. More bullish sentiment is likely to increase market volatility in the short-term.
- Monthly inflections:
- Credit (55% of macro outlook): Negative (no change)
- Earnings Growth (30%): Negative (no change)
- Momentum/Sentiment (10%): Negative (no change)
- Valuations (5%): Negative (no change)
- Timetable Recommendation: 50/50 Split for 5-10 Year Money and 24 Month Dollar Cost Averaging....
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May 17, 2023
HES – CDS 152bps, Base Case iCDS 65bps
Negative Case iCDS 80bps, 2027 4.300% Bond YTW of 4.642%, iYTW of 3.561%
Ba1 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens
Low Refinancing Need...
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May 17, 2023
PDCE – Base Case iCDS 159bps
Negative Case iCDS 219bps, 2026 5.750% Bond YTW of 6.801%, iYTW of 5.351%
Ba2 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens
Low Refinancing Need...
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