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The Latest from
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March 27, 2024
Featured Top Idea
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DVN – Devon Energy Corporation
Action: Buy 2028 5.875% Bonds CUSIP: 25179MBE2 (5.582% YTW, 4.942% iYTW)... -
March 21, 2024
- Follow Management’s Money, It Tells A Story. Management teams continue to be cautious about investing. Uniform earnings growth continues to decelerate. Profits are forecasted to decline, and multiple signals for investment show decelerating management confidence.
- Corporate credit metrics are showing signs of growing stress. Credit availability is lacking, and corporations and individual consumers are starting to show pressure from credit tightening. Credit issues highlight the risk of a recession growing.
- After the recent strong rally, the market is now at extended sentiment levels.
- Monthly inflections:
- Credit (55% of macro outlook): Negative (no change)
- Earnings Growth (30%): Negative (no change)
- Momentum/Sentiment (10%): Negative (downgrade)
- Valuations (5%): Negative (no change)
- Timetable Recommendation: 40% Equity/60% Bond Split for 5-10 Year Money and 24 Month Dollar Cost Averaging....
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March 20, 2024
Featured Top Idea
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ROST – Ross Stores, Inc.
Action: Buy 2027 4.700% Bonds, CUSIP: 778296AC7 (5.568% YTW, 4.822% iYTW)... -
March 18, 2024
DVN – Base Case CDS 82bps, Base Case iCDS 62bps,
Negative Case iCDS 78bps, 2028 5.875% Bond YTW of 5.582%, iYTW of 4.942%,
Baa2 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens,
Low Refinancing Need
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March 18, 2024
RTE.A – Base Case iCDS 137bps,
Negative Case iCDS 237bps, 2025 4.450% Bond YTW of 8.391%,
iYTW of 6.771%, CCC+ Rating from S&P, XO- (equivalent to BB+) Rating from Valens,
Low Refinancing Need...
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March 18, 2024
ZIP – Base Case iCDS 265bps,
Negative Case iCDS 317bps, 2030 5.000% Bond YTW of 7.368%, iYTW of 6.737%,
B1 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens,
Low Refinancing Need...
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March 18, 2024
SQ – Base Case iCDS 65bps,
Negative Case iCDS 148bps, 2027 0.250% Bond YTW of 5.627%, iYTW of 4.740%,
Ba2 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens,
Low Refinancing Need
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