Analysis

The Latest from Macro News

  • July 22, 2021
    Valens Market Phase Cycle Monitor & Corporate Credit Macro View for July 2021

    • This Market Appears Well Positioned to Climb the Wall of Worry. For the past several months, we have been highlighting a lack of management commitment to growth as an overhang for the market, and the market’s pause over the last several months has confirmed this. However, even as the market is uncertain about headlines around the Delta variant and inflation there are very early signs this might be lifting, and if they are confirmed, it is bullish for stocks. Concerns about an investment pause may be lifting, which could accelerate corporate earnings growth.
    • Credit markets remain supportive of growth and profitability, as all facets of the credit market are giving positive signals.
    • With investors no longer in an exceptionally overbought position, short-term downside risk for the market is much lower. At the same time, high valuations and rising inflation risks may offer headwinds for appreciation. Neutral sentiment removes overhangs for the market, and if growth is accelerating, the market can be positioned to rise even with elevated valuation risk.
    • Timetable Recommendation: 50/50 Split for 5-10 Year Money and upgrade to 8 Month Dollar Cost Averaging....
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  • June 17, 2021
    Valens Market Phase Cycle Monitor & Corporate Credit Macro View for June 2021

    • Early Management Buying Signals May Give Reason for Growing Growth Optimism. For the past several months, we have been highlighting a lack of management commitment to growth as an overhang for the market, and the market’s pause the last several months has confirmed this. However there are very early signs this might be lifting, and if they are confirmed, it is bullish for stocks. Concerns about an investment pause may be lifting, which could accelerate corporate earnings growth.
    • Credit markets remain supportive of growth and profitability, as all facets of the credit market are giving positive signals.
    • After recent volatility, investor sentiment levels have moderated. With investors no longer in an exceptionally over-bought position, short-term downside risk for the market is much lower. At the same time, high valuations and rising inflation risks may offer headwinds for appreciation. Neutral sentiment removes overhangs for the market, and if growth is accelerating, the market can be positioned to rise even with elevated valuation risk.
    • Timetable Recommendation: 50/50 Split for 5-10 Year Money and upgrade to 8 Month Dollar Cost Averaging....
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  • May 20, 2021
    Valens Market Phase Cycle Monitor & Corporate Credit Macro View for May 2021

    • A Sideways Market Is Not The End Of The World, And A Reasonable Outlook. Coming out of Q1 earnings season, management continued to show more reservation about their outlook, which may slow earnings growth the market is already pricing in. Corporate fundamentals signal a strong recovery in profitability, but the market is not pricing in a potential impending pause in growth.
    • That doesn’t mean the market has to collapse, because credit signals remain incredibly healthy. There can be no bear market or return to recession even if growth slows, without credit overhangs. Favorable bank, corporate, and consumer credit fundamentals coming out of this disruption still point to optimism for an ongoing recovery.
    • After the recent pullback we highlighted as a risk in April, investor sentiment levels have moderated. With investors no longer in an exceptionally overbought position, the short-term downside risk for the market is much lower. Neutral sentiment but more negative growth and valuation factors point to reasons for a sideways market at best until growth re-engages.
    • Timetable Recommendation: 50/50 Split for 5-10 Year Money and 10 Month Dollar Cost Averaging....
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  • April 22, 2021
    Valens Market Phase Cycle Monitor & Corporate Credit Macro View for April 2021

    • Investors Would Be Wise to Sell In May and Go Away This Year. As highlighted last month, heading into Q1 earnings season, management are showing more reservation about their outlook, which may slow earnings growth the market is already pricing in. Corporate fundamentals signal a strong recovery in profitability, but the market is not pricing in a potential impending pause in growth
    • It is not just valuations and growth that are flashing warning signals. After a sharp rally through the first half of April, sentiment metrics are extended too. Exceptionally bullish sentiment indicators combined may position the market for a short-term pull-back, and point to reasons for a sideways market at best until growth re-engages
    • Any pullback or stagnation in the market is not cause for panic for long-term investors because credit signals remain incredibly healthy. There can be no bear market or return to recession even if growth slows, without credit overhangs. Favorable bank, corporate, and consumer credit fundamentals coming out of this disruption still point to optimism for an ongoing recovery
    • Timetable Recommendation: 50/50 Split for 5-10 Year Money and 12 Month Dollar Cost Averaging...
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  • March 18, 2021
    Valens Market Phase Cycle Monitor & Corporate Credit Macro View for March 2021

    • Credit Spreads Levels Are As Important As Their Rate of Change… They Remain Low. There has been a great deal of discussion about rising rates recently. What is far more important than that they are rising is that even after the recent rise in the risk-free rate, the cost for U.S. corporates to borrow remains near historically low levels. Favorable bank, corporate, and consumer credit fundamentals coming out of this disruption still point to optimism for an ongoing recovery
    • Through Q2 and Q3 2020, management sentiment pointed to a rapid re-acceleration of investment after the pandemic, thanks to optimism on growth. As highlighted last month, in Q4 and particularly in the January and February earnings season, management is showing more reservation, which may slow earnings growth which the market is already pricing in. Corporate fundamentals signal a strong recovery in profitability, but a pause in growth
    • After having flashed warning signs the past 2 months, sentiment indicators are finally moderating after the recent sell-off. More neutral sentiment indicators mean less positive news doesn’t need to point to a sell-off in the near-term, it’s more likely to just mean a more sideways and volatile market, until growth can re-engage...
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  • February 18, 2021
    Valens Market Phase Cycle Monitor & Corporate Credit Macro View for February 2021

    • The Market Continues To Rise, While Growth and Inflation Signals Give Us Pause. Through Q2 and Q3 2020, management sentiment pointed to a rapid re-acceleration of investment after the pandemic, thanks to optimism on growth. In Q4 and in particular in the January 2021 earnings season, management are showing more reservation, which may slow earnings growth which the market is already pricing in. Corporate fundamentals signal a strong recovery in profitability, but a pause in growth
    • The recent rally has pushed investors to exuberant levels, they are not focused on near-term risks. Valuations are expensive, and with rising inflation signals, they may need to be adjusted down. Sentiment indicators continue to flash warning signs, and inflation and growth driven pressures on valuation could point to a correction or prolonged sideways market
    • That being said, a pause in the stock market doesn’t mean another bear market is imminent. Thanks to healthy credit fundamentals going into the pandemic and coming out of it, it’s unlikely the economy or the market is going to come under pressure. Favorable bank, corporate, and consumer credit fundamentals coming out of this disruption still point to optimism for an ongoing recovery...
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  • January 21, 2021
    Valens Market Phase Cycle Monitor & Corporate Credit Macro View for January 2021

    • The Market Rally Has Fundamental Backing, But Short-Term Risk-Reward is Skewed. The recent rally has pushed investors to exuberant levels, they are not focused on near-term risks. Valuations are expensive, and continued earnings growth is needed to justify them. Valuations and sentiment may cap near-term upside, as investors may have gotten ahead of the 2021 story. This may limit stock appreciation potential for the remainder of Q1 2021
    • That being said, a pause in the stock market doesn’t mean another bear market is imminent. Thanks to healthy credit fundamentals going into the pandemic and coming out of it, it’s unlikely the economy or the market is going to come under pressure. Favorable bank, corporate, and consumer credit fundamentals coming out of this disruption still point to optimism for a strong recovery
    • Late last year we highlighted how growth signals had gotten more positive, giving us reason to abandon concerns we were in a range-bound market. Even before the election, management teams started to show more confidence in their outlook, and with the vaccine providing visibility, investment plans may resume sooner, helping drive earnings growth. While there could be near-term market uncertainty, fundamentals should bounce back rapidly...
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  • December 17, 2020
    Valens Market Phase Cycle Monitor & Corporate Credit Macro View for December 2020

    • Excessively Positive Sentiment Points to Early 2021 Returns Being Pulled Forward. The recent rally has pushed investors to exuberant levels, they are not focused on near-term risks. Valuations are expensive, and continued earnings growth is needed to justify them. Valuations and sentiment may cap near-term upside, as investors may have gotten ahead of the 2021 story. This may limit stock appreciation potential in Q1 2021
    • That being said, a pause in the stock market doesn’t mean another bear market is imminent. Thanks to healthy credit fundamentals going into the pandemic and coming out of it, it’s unlikely the economy or the market is going to come under pressure. Favorable bank, corporate, and consumer credit fundamentals coming out of this disruption still point to optimism for a strong recovery...
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  • November 19, 2020
    Valens Market Phase Cycle Monitor & Corporate Credit Macro View for November 2020

    • Managements Showed Growth Bullishness in October, And the Vaccine Helps. Last month we highlighted the potential we’d be in a range bound market if growth signals couldn’t inflect more positively. Even before the election, management teams started to show more confidence in their outlook, and with the vaccine providing visibility, investment plans may resume sooner, helping drive earnings growth and stock market appreciation. Fundamentals should bounce back rapidly
    • The coronavirus pandemic has pushed the world into a short-term recession, but thanks to credit fundamentals, it’s likely not to be a protracted deep recession or long recovery. Favorable bank, corporate, and consumer credit fundamentals heading into this disruption still point to optimism for a strong recovery
    • Sentiment indicators are again excessively bullish. The recent rally has pushed investors to exuberant levels, they are not focused on near-term risks. Valuations are expensive, and continued earnings growth is needed to justify them. Valuations and sentiment may cap near-term upside, though any drop due to valuations and sentiment signals is capped by a lack of credit overhangs and a potential acceleration in growth...
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  • October 22, 2020
    Valens Market Phase Cycle Monitor & Corporate Credit Macro View for October 2020

    • Growth and Sentiment Signal We’re at the High End of a Range Bound Market. Profitability is likely to recover quickly from the recession, and key indicators point to reason for optimism for longer-term growth. However, management sentiment indicators are shifting more negatively around growth, which could hold down valuations in the near-term. Fundamentals should bounce back rapidly, but growing management pessimism about growth may disappoint investors in Q3
    • The coronavirus pandemic has pushed the world into a short-term recession, but thanks to credit fundamentals, it’s likely not to be a protracted deep recession or long recovery. Favorable bank, corporate, and consumer credit fundamentals heading into this disruption still point to optimism for a strong recovery
    • Sentiment indicators are again excessively bullish. The recent rally has pushed investors to exuberant levels, they are not focused on near-term risks. Valuations are expensive, and continued earnings growth is needed to justify them. Valuations and sentiment likely cap near-term upside, though any drop due to valuations, growth, and sentiment signals is capped by a lack of credit overhangs...
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  • September 24, 2020
    Valens Market Phase Cycle Monitor & Corporate Credit Macro View for September 2020

    • We Warned A Pullback Was Coming – Don’t Panic, Just Watch The Growth Signals. Profitability is likely to recover quickly from the recession, and key indicators point to a reason for optimism for longer-term growth. However, management sentiment indicators may be shifting more negatively around growth, which could hold down valuations in the near-term. Fundamentals should bounce back rapidly, but growing management pessimism about growth may disappoint investors in Q3
    • The coronavirus pandemic has pushed the world into a short-term recession, but thanks to credit fundamentals, it’s likely not to be a protracted deep recession or long recovery. Favorable bank, corporate, and consumer credit fundamentals heading into this disruption still point to optimism for a strong recovery
    • Sentiment indicators have moderated. After the recent pullback, investors are no longer ignoring risks in the near term. Valuations are expensive, though continued earnings growth would justify them. Valuations may cap near-term upside, though any drop due to valuations, growth, and sentiment signals is capped by a lack of credit overhangs...
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  • August 20, 2020
    Valens Market Phase Cycle Monitor & Corporate Credit Macro View for August 2020

    • The Market Continues to Climb the Wall of Worry – With Limited Long-term Worries. Earnings growth and investment are likely to recover quickly from the recession, due to a need to invest, and management teams’ growing confidence and lack of concern about structural issues. Fundamentals should bounce back rapidly, but after the recent rally, equity markets are pricing in a well-executed recovery, capping upside
    • The coronavirus pandemic has pushed the world into a short-term recession, but thanks to credit fundamentals, it’s likely not to be a protracted deep recession or long recovery. Favorable bank, corporate, and consumer credit fundamentals heading into this disruption still point to optimism for a strong recovery
    • Sentiment indicators have become excessively positive. After the impressive rally since March, investors have become overly reward-focused, and are not prepared for any negative news in the near term. Q2 earnings have not offered a trigger for this to occur, while growing uncertainty from Washington could offer a trigger. Valuations are expensive, though continued earnings growth justifies them, near term sentiment-driven downside may be probable, though the drop is capped by a lack of credit overhangs...
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  • July 23, 2020
    Valens Market Phase Cycle Monitor & Corporate Credit Macro View for July 2020

    • With The Market Re-testing June Highs, Last Month’s Playbook Remains Unchanged. Earnings growth and investment are likely to recover quickly from the recession, due to a need to invest, and management teams’ growing confidence and lack of concern about structural issues. Fundamentals should bounce back rapidly, but after the recent rally, equity markets are pricing in a well-executed recovery, capping upside
    • The coronavirus pandemic has pushed the world into a short-term recession, but thanks to credit fundamentals, it’s likely not to be a protracted deep recession or long recovery. Favorable bank, corporate, and consumer credit fundamentals heading into this disruption still point to optimism for a strong recovery
    • Sentiment indicators have become excessively positive. After the impressive rally since March, investors have become overly reward-focused, and are not prepared for any negative news in the near term. Investors should remain patient as Q2 earnings and negative headlines are offering reason for investors to become more risk-focused. With valuations capping upside but elevated headline risk, near term market downside may be probable, though the drop is capped by a lack of credit overhangs...
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  • June 18, 2020
    Valens Market Phase Cycle Monitor & Corporate Credit Macro View for June 2020

    • There are signs the U.S. recovery could be quick, but markets are already expecting it. Earnings growth and investment are likely to recover quickly from the recession, due to a need to invest, and management teams’ growing confidence and lack of concern about structural issues. Fundamentals should bounce back rapidly, but after the recent rally, equity markets are pricing in a well executed recovery, capping upside
    • The coronavirus pandemic has pushed the world into a short-term recession – but that does not mean a protracted deep recession or long recovery thanks to credit fundamentals. Favorable bank, corporate, and consumer credit fundamentals heading into this disruption still point to optimism for a strong recovery
    • Sentiment indicators have become excessively positive. After the impressive rally since March, investors have become overly reward focused, and are not prepared for any negative news in the near-term. Investors should remain patient as Q2 earnings in July are likely to offer reason for investors to be reminded of risks to the recovery. With valuations capping upside but elevated headline risk, near-term market downside may be probable, though the drop is capped by a lack of credit overhangs...
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  • May 21, 2020
    Valens Market Phase Cycle Monitor & Corporate Credit Macro View for May 2020

    • The data says expect a retest of the lows, but it says don’t panic during it, buy. The coronavirus pandemic has pushed the world into a short-term recession and credit spreads point to near-term disruptions – but that does not need to mean a protracted deep recession or long recovery thanks to credit fundamentals. Favorable bank, corporate, and consumer credit fundamentals heading into this disruption still point to optimism for a strong recovery, but credit spreads point to near-term volatility
    • Corporate fundamentals and valuations warrant optimism for equity upside if the recession is not protracted. Strong corporate profitability and fundamental factors driving a need to invest point to fundamental reasons for market upside after this overhang is removed...
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  • April 23, 2020
    Valens Market Phase Cycle Monitor & Corporate Credit Macro View for April 2020

    • A month further in the crisis, the long-term fundamental picture remains positive. The coronavirus pandemic has pushed the world into an almost certain short-term recession – but that does not need to mean a protracted deep recession or long recovery thanks to credit fundamentals. Favorable bank, corporate, and consumer credit fundamentals heading into this disruption still point to optimism for a strong recovery
    • Corporate fundamentals and valuations warrant optimism for equity upside if the recession is not protracted. Strong corporate profitability, management optimism about growth before the pandemic surprise, and very pessimistic investor sentiment based on current valuations point to fundamental reasons for market upside after this short-term overhang is removed

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  • March 19, 2020
    Valens Market Phase Cycle Monitor & Corporate Credit Macro View for March 2020

    • Weathering a storm requires a strong foundation, which this economy has. The coronavirus pandemic has pushed the world into an almost certain short-term recession – but that does not need to mean a protracted deep recession or long recovery thanks to credit fundamentals. Favorable bank, corporate, and consumer credit fundamentals heading into this disruption give reason for optimism for a strong recovery
    • Corporate fundamentals and valuations warrant optimism for equity upside if the recession is not protracted. Strong corporate profitability, management optimism about growth before the pandemic surprise, and very pessimistic investor sentiment based on current valuations point to fundamental reasons for market upside after this short-term overhang is removed

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  • February 20, 2020
    Valens Market Phase Cycle Monitor & Corporate Credit Macro View for February 2020

    •  Party like it’s early 1999 the markets are set up to. Fundamental and management sentiment data point to accelerating earnings growth, at the same time that creditm lending standards are starting to flash signs of tightening. This is a classic set up for the beginning of the late stage of a bull market, where growth takes over, driving a market higher. A set up like early 1999. Signs of strong 2020 earnings growth and growing management confidence on this issue point to continued reason for fundamental acceleration
    • Credit lending standards point to early reasons for monitoring credit, as does the recent re inversion of the yield curve even after the Fed’s lowering of rates in late However, these are often 18 month to 2 year leading indicators, and there are still no signals of an impending credit crisis. Low cost to borrow, favorable credit fundamentals, and a recent wave of refinancing gives room for corporate growth. A low to no credit risk environment suggests limited risk to US equities in 2020...
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  • January 23, 2020
    Valens Market Phase Cycle Monitor & Corporate Credit Macro View for January 2020

    •After a 15% rally since October, the market may be set up to pause don’t panic. After the recent near pause less rally, sentiment indicators have grown overly bullish. This is generally a signal that near term volatility is likely to return, as investors are not focused on risks. This increases the possibility of a negative shock. However, when a dip occurs, it should be viewed as a buying opportunity based on positive corporate and credit fundamentals

    • Fundamental and management sentiment data point to accelerating earnings growth, at the same time that credit lending standards are starting to flash signs of tightening.This is a classic set up for the beginning of the late stage of a bull market, where growth takes over, driving a market higher. Signs of strong 2020 earnings growth and growing management confidence on this issue point to continued reason for fundamental acceleration...

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  • December 19, 2019
    Valens Market Phase Cycle Monitor & Corporate Credit Macro View for December 2019

    • Santa’s job may be done soon, but his rally has more room to run into 2020. After a challenging few months, we have seen renewed fundamental tailwinds coming out of the Q3 2019 earnings season into Q4 2019. Fundamental and management sentiment data point to accelerating earnings growth, at the same time that credit lending standards are starting to flash signs of tightening. This is a classic set up for the beginning of the late stage of a bull market, where growth takes over, driving a market higher. Signs of strong 2020 earnings growth and growing management confidence on this issue point to continued reason for fundamental acceleration
    • While credit lending standards point to early reasons for monitoring credit, there are still no signals of an impending credit crisis. Low cost to borrow, favorable credit fundamentals, and a recent wave of refinancing gives room for corporates. A low to no credit risk environment suggests limited risk to US equities in 2019 and into 2020...
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