January 17, 2019
A RECESSION IS COMING … in 1.5-2 years if trends do not change before then
The yield curve has flattened dramatically in the past quarter. CDS and bond yields are trending negatively. China and Europe appear to have growth issues, and the Fed may be too hawkish. Cash levels relative to debt maturities are at levels not seen since 2007 and companies will have debt maturity headwalls in 2021 that could be a concern. A recession is coming! Run for the hills!
December 20, 2018
A deep bear market does not occur without credit risk – we do not see any
The basis for the Market Phase Cycle, and what 150+ years of market cycle research shows, is that credit market cycles drive economic cycles and equity market cycles. When access to credit is easy, economic cycles trend positively as do equity markets. When credit markets tighten, and credit destruction happens, equity markets and the economy react similarly.
October 18, 2018
Halloween may be around the corner, but don’t be spooked by the market’s moves
Any time the market falls 6%+ in 2 days, investors justifiably ask whether something has changed that should impact their investment thesis. This is when a consistent framework like the Market Phase Cycle is most valuable.
October 11, 2018
BTD = Buy The Dip. Yes, yet again we are being given the gift of a US Equities market entry point. Patience is a profitable virtue when deploying capital into any market sell-off. This pullback in US equities is no reason to panic.
May 17, 2018
“I’ve got a really good feeling about this” – Young Han Solo on today’s market
In the new Star Wars movie coming out on Memorial Day weekend, a young Han Solo flips his classic line “I’ve got a bad feeling about this” at what appears to be a tense moment for the crew. His rare optimism seems appropriate as we exit Q1 2018 earnings season.
December 21, 2017
As we sing Auld Lang Syne – let us reflect on why this old bull market still has life
As the world rings in to the new year in a few days, many will sing Auld Lang Syne. The lyrics ask if we should put the past behind us, or take the opportunity to remember the friendships that got us where we are to
July 20, 2017
Cross Another Concern Off – Moderating Inflation Facilitates Premium Valuations
The most important factors that drive valuation multiples for individual companies surround a company’s earnings growth potential. As we have highlighted in recent editions of the Market Phase Cycle, earnings growth remains robust.