January 23, 2020
•After a 15% rally since October, the market may be set up to pause don’t panic. After the recent near pause less rally, sentiment indicators have grown overly bullish. This is generally a signal that near term volatility is likely to return, as investors are not focused on risks. This increases the possibility of a negative shock. However, when a dip occurs, it should be viewed as a buying opportunity based on positive corporate and credit fundamentals
• Fundamental and management sentiment data point to accelerating earnings growth, at the same time that credit lending standards are starting to flash signs of tightening.This is a classic set up for the beginning of the late stage of a bull market, where growth takes over, driving a market higher. Signs of strong 2020 earnings growth and growing management confidence on this issue point to continued reason for fundamental acceleration
February 22, 2019
Bull markets die on euphoria, no one looks euphoric for this market
Bull Markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.
- John Templeton
John Templeton was likely the first, and unsurprisingly one of the best, at summarizing what really drives market cycles. It is likely that Templeton would look at today’s market and not yet see the euphoria he referenced in the above quote.
January 17, 2019
A RECESSION IS COMING … in 1.5-2 years if trends do not change before then
The yield curve has flattened dramatically in the past quarter. CDS and bond yields are trending negatively. China and Europe appear to have growth issues, and the Fed may be too hawkish. Cash levels relative to debt maturities are at levels not seen since 2007 and companies will have debt maturity headwalls in 2021 that could be a concern. A recession is coming! Run for the hills!
December 20, 2018
A deep bear market does not occur without credit risk – we do not see any
The basis for the Market Phase Cycle, and what 150+ years of market cycle research shows, is that credit market cycles drive economic cycles and equity market cycles. When access to credit is easy, economic cycles trend positively as do equity markets. When credit markets tighten, and credit destruction happens, equity markets and the economy react similarly.