Market technicians have many metrics they look at when observing the charts. One trusty tool that many come back to is looking for charts with consistent higher highs and higher lows in stock price. This indicates positive momentum and is a favorable set-up.
The Latest from Macro News
Monday, September 24, 2018
macro | September 20, 2018
macro | August 16, 2018
The signal and the noise
The title of Nate Silver’s 2012 best selling book about predictive models, The Signal and The Noise, is referencing identifying real signals from statistical data, versus identifying false noise and relationships, and the risk of conflating the two.
macro | July 19, 2018
The term goldilocks often gets overused in financial markets. There just are not many other adjectives that explain an environment where things are positive, but not so positive that the market gets overheated, the “not too hot, nor too cold” phenomenon, quite as succinctly.
macro | June 21, 2018
Equity markets rallied 6% from early-May to mid-June. Concerns about inflation, interest rates, geopolitical problems, and trade issues dropped to the background in the face of an earnings season that produced strong earnings and management confidence about corporate outlooks.
macro | May 17, 2018
“I’ve got a really good feeling about this” – Young Han Solo on today’s market
In the new Star Wars movie coming out on Memorial Day weekend, a young Han Solo flips his classic line “I’ve got a bad feeling about this” at what appears to be a tense moment for the crew. His rare optimism seems appropriate as we exit Q1 2018 earnings season.
macro | April 19, 2018
In general, management teams tend to be value buyers, buying when their stocks dip and withdrawing when their equity rallies. If they don’t, it can be a sign of their concern about fundamentals. Watching this statistic can be helpful in confirming other signals about the fundamental outlook.
macro | March 22, 2018
Over the last several months, there has been increased volatility in the market. The volatility has been driven by headlines about inflation, trade, and the management at the Fed, to name a few examples.
macro | February 22, 2018
In the last month’s Market Phase Cycle, we highlighted inflation as a key risk that investors would be focused on as we moved through 2018.
macro | January 18, 2018
In late 2016 into early 2017, we repeatedly highlighted that fundamentals appeared to be accelerating favorably, and this would be a tailwind for markets for the coming year.
macro | December 21, 2017
As we sing Auld Lang Syne – let us reflect on why this old bull market still has life
As the world rings in to the new year in a few days, many will sing Auld Lang Syne. The lyrics ask if we should put the past behind us, or take the opportunity to remember the friendships that got us where we are to
macro | November 22, 2017
Equity market expectations are currently not aggressive – pricing in continued modest growth with steady ROA’ improvement. If corporations continue to deliver the strong adjusted earnings growth they’ve delivered this year, there is substantial fundamental upside going forward.
macro | October 19, 2017
As highlighted in the September letter, equity markets tend to have strength in Q4. Even after a month where the market continued to move higher, investor sentiment remains relatively muted. This, combined with continued building earnings growth trends, offers market tail winds.
macro | September 21, 2017
The seasonal strength of the equity markets into Q4 and through the end of the year are a well-known phenomenon. This year, they are likely to benefit from a combination of overly cautious investor sentiment going into Q4, and continued building earnings growth trends.
macro | August 24, 2017
Ben Graham said “in the short-term, the market is a voting machine, while in the long-term it is a weighing machine.” *
macro | July 20, 2017
Cross Another Concern Off – Moderating Inflation Facilitates Premium Valuations
The most important factors that drive valuation multiples for individual companies surround a company’s earnings growth potential. As we have highlighted in recent editions of the Market Phase Cycle, earnings growth remains robust.
macro | June 22, 2017
More and more fundamental factors point to a growth acceleration
In October 2016, management sentiment indicators started to flag positively, even as the market remained uncertain. This was followed by positive newsflow and earnings upgrades showing fundamental acceleration.
macro | May 18, 2017
Fundamental storm clouds are receding, so news related sell-offs offer opportunity
Political news flow has introduced market volatility, but fundamentals have actually been improving.
macro | April 23, 2017
When sentiment reaches neutral levels (like now) in a Stage 2 bull, be a buyer
In a Stage 2 bull market, momentum pushes stocks higher and investor sentiment rarely reaches negative levels.
macro | April 12, 2017
Based on valuation alone, markets may be fully valued, but there are reasons to believe the stock market rally can continue
While valuations may appear aggressive, they are actually just around average compared to historical valuations in similar inflation and tax environments
macro | March 23, 2017
Not to be a broken record, but when this next dip comes (and it will) buy it
Fundamental and management sentiment factors continue to point to a positive trend in underlying corporate profitability and growth, justifying current premium valuations. However, investor sentiment indicators remain overly effusive, creating reason for concern about increased volatility with any potential bad news.