February 22, 2019
Bull markets die on euphoria, no one looks euphoric for this market
Bull Markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.
- John Templeton
John Templeton was likely the first, and unsurprisingly one of the best, at summarizing what really drives market cycles. It is likely that Templeton would look at today’s market and not yet see the euphoria he referenced in the above quote.
January 17, 2019
A RECESSION IS COMING … in 1.5-2 years if trends do not change before then
The yield curve has flattened dramatically in the past quarter. CDS and bond yields are trending negatively. China and Europe appear to have growth issues, and the Fed may be too hawkish. Cash levels relative to debt maturities are at levels not seen since 2007 and companies will have debt maturity headwalls in 2021 that could be a concern. A recession is coming! Run for the hills!
December 20, 2018
A deep bear market does not occur without credit risk – we do not see any
The basis for the Market Phase Cycle, and what 150+ years of market cycle research shows, is that credit market cycles drive economic cycles and equity market cycles. When access to credit is easy, economic cycles trend positively as do equity markets. When credit markets tighten, and credit destruction happens, equity markets and the economy react similarly.
October 18, 2018
Halloween may be around the corner, but don’t be spooked by the market’s moves
Any time the market falls 6%+ in 2 days, investors justifiably ask whether something has changed that should impact their investment thesis. This is when a consistent framework like the Market Phase Cycle is most valuable.
October 11, 2018
BTD = Buy The Dip. Yes, yet again we are being given the gift of a US Equities market entry point. Patience is a profitable virtue when deploying capital into any market sell-off. This pullback in US equities is no reason to panic.
May 17, 2018
“I’ve got a really good feeling about this” – Young Han Solo on today’s market
In the new Star Wars movie coming out on Memorial Day weekend, a young Han Solo flips his classic line “I’ve got a bad feeling about this” at what appears to be a tense moment for the crew. His rare optimism seems appropriate as we exit Q1 2018 earnings season.