CIEN – Base Case iCDS 60bps,
Negative Case iCDS 87bps, 2030 4.000% Bond YTW of 5.188%, iYTW of 4.199%,
Ba1 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens,
Low Refinancing Need...
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September 5, 2025
EAT – Base Case iCDS 113bps
Negative Case iCDS 130bps, 2030 8.250% Bond YTW of 5.817%, iYTW of 4.875%
Ba3 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens
Low Refinancing Need...
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September 3, 2025
Featured Top Idea
BRBR – BellRing Brands, Inc.Action: Close Trade: Buy 2030 7.000% Bonds, CUSIP: 07831CAA1
Aggregate Credit Market and Credit Fundamental Review
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Since the Fed started communicating plans to aggressively raise rates in the face of inflationary pressures, the Fed has changed from a dovish benefit to cost to borrow, to a hawkish headwind. After the recent ~250bps rise in the risk-free rate from 2021 lows, aggregate corporate cost to borrow has risen to levels that are at the high end of the prior bull market. They are nowhere near levels that signal a freeze or panic but are high enough to put pressure on corporates borrowing for growth. The newly elevated cost to borrow for corporates may make refinancing decisions and growth investment decisions tougher. This is why it is important that corporations have such healthy financial statements currently.... -
August 29, 2025
BRBR – Base Case iCDS 166bps,
Negative Case iCDS 229bps, 2030 7.000% Bond YTW of 5.810%,
iYTW of 5.519%, B1 Rating from Moody’s, IG4 (equivalent to Baa2) Rating from Valens,
Low Refinancing Need...
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August 27, 2025
Featured Top Idea
ON – ON Semiconductor CorporationAction: Buy 2028 3.875% Bonds CUSIP: 682189AQ8 (5.172% YTW, 4.379% iYTW) Aggregate Credit Market and Credit Fundamental Review
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Since the Fed started communicating plans to aggressively raise rates in the face of inflationary pressures, the Fed has changed from a dovish benefit to cost to borrow, to a hawkish headwind. After the recent ~250bps rise in the risk-free rate from 2021 lows, aggregate corporate cost to borrow has risen to levels that are at the high end of the prior bull market. They are nowhere near levels that signal a freeze or panic but are high enough to put pressure on corporates borrowing for growth. The newly elevated cost to borrow for corporates may make refinancing decisions and growth investment decisions tougher. This is why it is important that corporations have such healthy financial statements currently.... -
August 26, 2025
WMS – Base Case iCDS 111bps,
Negative Case iCDS 133bps, 2030 6.375% Bond YTW of 5.352%, iYTW of 4.882%,
Ba1 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens,
Low Refinancing Need...
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August 20, 2025 -
August 6, 2025
Featured Top Idea
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UAA – Under Armour, Inc.
Action: Buy 2030 7.250% Bonds CUSIP: 904311AD9 (6.947% YTW, 5.611% iYTW)... -
August 5, 2025
MU – Base Case CDS 57bps, Base Case iCDS 23bps,
Negative Case iCDS 30bps, 2029 6.750% Bond YTW of 4.701%, iYTW of 4.201%,
Baa3 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens,
Low Refinancing Need...
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July 28, 2025
HLX – Base Case iCDS 258bps,
Negative Case iCDS 334bps, 2029 9.750% Bond YTW of 7.641%,
iYTW of 6.422%, Ba3 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens,
Low Refinancing Need
...
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July 23, 2025
Featured Top Idea
XYZ – Block, Inc.Action: Buy 2031 3.500% Bonds CUSIP: 852234AM5 (5.391% YTW, 4.756% iYTW)...
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July 23, 2025 -
July 18, 2025
F – Base Case iCDS 96bps, Negative Case iCDS 181bps
2031 7.450% Bond YTW of 5.791%, iYTW of 4.994%
Ba1 Rating from Moody’s, IG4 (equivalent to Baa2) Rating from Valens
Low Refinancing Need...
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July 17, 2025
SWKS – Base Case iCDS 75bps,
Negative Case iCDS 104bps, 2031 3.000% Bond YTW of 5.385%, iYTW of 4.734%,
Ba1 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens,
Low Refinancing Need...
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July 17, 2025
UAA – Base Case CDS 269bps, Base Case iCDS 168bps,
Negative Case iCDS 224bps, 2030 7.250% Bond YTW of 6.947%, iYTW of 5.611%,
Ba3 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens,
Low Refinancing Need...
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July 16, 2025
Featured Top Idea
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MUR – Murphy Oil Corporation
Action: Close Trade: 2028 6.375% Bonds CUSIP: 626717AN2
2029 7.050% Bonds CUSIP: 626717AA0... -
July 11, 2025
MUR – Base Case iCDS 212bps,
Negative Case iCDS 322bps, 2029 7.050% Bond YTW of 6.132%,
iYTW of 6.081%, Ba2 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens,
Low Refinancing Need
...
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July 9, 2025
Featured Top Idea
NRG – NRG Energy Inc.Action: Buy 2028 5.750% Bonds CUSIP: 629377CE0 (5.153% YTW, 4.219% iYTW)
Buy 2029 3.375% Bonds CUSIP: 629377CQ3 (5.411% YTW, 4.292% iYTW)
Buy 2029 5.250% Bonds CUSIP: 629377CH3 (5.619% YTW, 4.292% iYTW)
Buy 2031 3.625% Bonds CUSIP: 629377CR1 (5.496% YTW, 4.292% iYTW)...
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July 2, 2025
Featured Top Idea
CRWD – CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.Action: Buy 2029 3.000% Bonds CUSIP: 22788CAA3 (5.037% YTW, 4.348% iYTW)
June 23, 2025
NRG – CDS 90bps, iCDS 28bps,
Negative Case iCDS 41bps, 2028 5.750% Bond YTW of 5.153%, iYTW of 4.219%,
Ba1 Rating from Moody’s, IG4 (equivalent to Baa2) Rating from Valens,
Low Refinancing Need...
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